Week 2 NFL Picks

Last week: 8-7-1 Overall: 8-7-1 Can I claim week 1 as a preseason week? I didn’t get a preseason and therefore week 1 should not count against me. No? Okay.

Anyways, week 1 probably ended up giving us more questions to answer then answers to questions we already have, but that’s the beauty of the early season in the NFL. The teams most people thought were going to be good look the part (Vikings, Patriots, Rams) and the same for the bad teams (Bills, Cardinals, Bills again for good measure). There were a few upstarts last week, Ryan Fitzmagic is back for Bucs and Sam Darnold looked like the answer for the Jets. Overall, this was week 1 and while there are a few problems teams need to work on its not time to panic for playoff hopefuls.

Teams though will want to avoid going 0-2, since 2007 only 10 of 91 teams to start 0-2 have made the playoffs ( 10.9 percent) the Saints did it last year and came within a play of going to the NFC championship. The teams that are at risk of falling to 0-2 are the Falcons, Chargers, Bills, Saints, Texans, Titans, Colts, Lions, 49ers, Raiders, Giants, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Bears. The most interesting of these to follow are the teams people expected to be in the playoffs (Falcons, Chargers, Saints); these three teams should all be in tight races for their respective division titles at the end of the season and a bad start could severely hurt their chances. There are also several teams who started the season with an outside chance of the playoffs but were looking to fight their way in (Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Titans, Cowboys) if they start 0-2 it could impact how they are viewed the rest of the season. Without further ado here is my shot at redeeming myself for week 1, without guessing the scores this time because that makes me look even more like a fool. The winning team is in bold

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals: This game is a toss up, but Joe Flacco is 3-6 in his career at Cincinnati, and as dominant as they looked week 1 it’s important to remember they were playing the Bills.

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons: If they weren’t atrocious in the red zone the Falcons would be a great team; I think they win this game, but still fire Sarkisian mid season. The Falcons lost two key players on defense, but I cant see a team with their talent going 0-2.

Las Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills: San Diego should win this one easily, but I’m excited to see Josh Allen’s cannon arm in his first career start.

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints: I don’t think anyone expected the Saints who were top defense last year to get into a shoot out with Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs. The Saints have too much talent to be that bad on defense, I expect them to come out and make statement that week 1 was a fluke.

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers: Even if Aaron Rodgers plays I expect the Vikings to win this one. The Vikings defense is really good and the key to beating the Packers is a solid defense. That being said I hope Aaron Rodgers plays because this game has the chance to be one of the best of the season. Watch out for the Green Bay’s secondary, if they can force Kirk Cousins to throw an interception anything can happen.

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans: I’d like to take this opportunity to voice my anger at the Titans front office. They are wasting the talent that is Marcus Mariota and need to give him a coach that will help him develop offensively. This is a homecoming for current Titans head coach Mike Vrabel who used to be the Texans defensive coordinator so it will be interesting to see if he can plan against the Texans offense, but he wasn’t a good coordinator so I wouldn’t plan on it.

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Redskins: I definitely overestimated the impact Andrew Luck would have on the Colts; the team around him is still bad. Alex Smith looked just like himself week 1 and I expect him to have another solid season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Yes, I do realize that the Steelers didn’t beat the Browns last week. However, Ben Roethlisberger is always better at home then away and he won’t be playing in a storm last game. Also, the Chiefs secondary is not as good as they have been the past few years. They lost Marcus Peters this offseason and both of their safeties are not expected to play this week. Last week Phillip Rivers had a 103.7 QBR against the Chiefs while he averaged a 43.2 QBR in two games last year. Look for Big Ben to take advantage of the depleted Chiefs secondary.

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets: This is another toss up game for me. Sam Darnold impressed me last week and the Jets are at home so I’m expecting them to win this game.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: If Tampa Bay can turn this into another high scoring game then they have a chance to win, because I doubt Nick Foles would be able to keep up. I expect the Eagles defense to dominate though and the Eagles to win.

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers: I think both of these teams have a lot of questions around them about just how good they will be. The 49ers hung tough against a solid Vikings team even with Jimmy Garopollo not looking as good as he did at the end of the last season. Look for him to turn it around, if he doesn’t and the Lions win we might start hearing rumblings about just how good he is. Personally, I’d just call it a sophomore slump.

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams: First of all, I keep on calling them the St. Louis Rams and I doubt I will stop soon. Second, the Rams are good and the Cardinals are not. The most interesting thing this game might just be how many times people panic because Sam Bradford got tackled and they are afraid he’s injured.

Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos: If the Raiders were hoping to get Derek Carr on track going to Mile High Stadium and facing Von Miller is not the way to do it. While Case Keenum looked shaky week 1 against the Seahawks the Raiders lack defensive talent to make a difference.

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars: This is easily a game I could see New England losing and we end up talking about the stellar defensive play by the Jags. However, the Jags will probably be without their biggest offensive weapon Leonard Fournette and that means they will have to rely on Blake Bortles to win the game.

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have a lot of problems on offense: Dak Prescott doesn’t look good, their offensive line has injury problems, and the general NFL fan would have a hard time naming an offensive skill position player not named Ezekiel Elliot. I expect the Giants to use Saquon Barkley often against the Cowboys defense that allowed on average 4.6 yards per rush.

Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears: After seeing what happened what he did against the Packers the Seahawks should be deathly afraid of Khalil Mack. Expect the Seahawks to run more with Chris Carson who looked promising against Denver in hopes that it will make the Bears line have to worry about the rush instead of going straight for Russell Wilson. I expect Wilson to spend his fair amount of time on the ground, but the Hawks do just enough to win.

Tuesday Talking Points

A weekly blog with my thoughts on some of the storylines from the past weekend.

Aaron Rodgers is the most exciting player to watch in the NFL.

We all know that Aaron Rodgers is a top 5 player in the league depending on how you view Tom Brady and how you value defensive players, but for my money Rodgers is the most exciting player to watch in the NFL.  Aaron doesn’t have the aura of being the greatest like Brady, the pure athletic ability of Antonio Brown, or the explosiveness of Todd Gurley; what he does have is “it”.  When Rodgers is absolutely destroying the other teams secondary like he was against the Bears there is no one I’d rather watch.

The Seahawks need to give Earl Thomas a new long term contract.  

This weekend the impact of an elite defensive player was on full display.  While the stat line may not show much Aaron Donald was his normal dominant self terrorizing the offensive line of the Oakland Raiders.  New Chicago Bears star Khalil Mack had one of the most impressive stat lines we’ve ever seen from a defensive player, 3 tackles, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1 INT, and 1 TD.  While he has had an up and down couple of years on and off the field Earl is still elite proven by his play Sunday against the Denver Broncos. The Seahawks defense is not the same as it was before especially in the secondary where Earl is the lone hold over from the Legion of Boom.  While they are young they have talent and there is no one I’d rather have leading the secondary of the future then Earl.  Pay the man, give him the security he wants because if the Seahawks don’t they may be without their safety blanket.

What a crazy year this will be for the rookie QBs.

It will be interesting to see what path each of the 4 highly drafted QBs follow during the season.  Sam Darnold already looked the part of a star QB in his debut so look for him to continue to start.  The Jets gain no value from benching Darnold and actually have a solid enough team around him that he will not have to try to win every game by himself.  I just hope for his sake that the Jets fans let him grow through the ups and downs.  Josh Allen wasn’t supposed to play week 1, but his time was coming eventually.   Nathan Peterman is not good and the Bills made a mistake by not keeping A.J McCarron to be their starter.  With the Bills not committing to a starter for next week I hope that this doesn’t become a case of a QB rotation game to game or even quarter to quarter.  Josh Allen is better then Peterman, but is still raw and needs confidence and time to develop.  The number one overall pick, Baker Mayfield, didn’t even see the field during the Browns game against the Steelers and rightfully so.  While Tyrod Taylor was not good during the game he is a solid QB and will keep the Browns competitive during the season.  There has been to many young QBs come through Cleveland who were thrown into the starting job with no real supporting cast and we all know the results how that has gone.  Let Mayfield sit, it won’t be worse for the Browns than last season and it will only help in the future.  Then their is Josh Rosen perhaps the least talked about one of the four.  The Cardinals aren’t going anywhere in the NFC West and as of right now they have no plans to move on from Sam Bradford.  However, with Bradford’s injury history I expect to see Rosen playing sometime soon and see him doing well with David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald supporting him.

Week 1 NFL Picks

Every week I’ll pick the winner of every NFL matchup and preview some of the more interesting ones that week. with the goal of not looking like a fool by the end of it.   At the time of me writing this the Thursday night kickoff game between the Eagles and Falcons has been played.  I’d like to be able to say that I picked the defending champions, but instead I decided that the Falcons offense wouldn’t be as bad in the red zone as they were last year (23rd in the NFL).  As we saw they were and you can mark me down for a disappointing 0-1 start.  Without further ado here are my picks for the rest of the NFL week 1 slate.

Baltimore 23-Buffalo 13

Cincinnati 17- Indianapolis 27

Pittsburgh 31- Cleveland 20

Tennessee 21- Miami 20

Houston 20- New England 24

Tampa Bay 13- New Orleans 27

Jacksonville 20 – New York Giants 17

Dallas 24- Carolina 21

Seattle 17- Denver 24

Washington 17- Arizona 13

Chicago 13- Green Bay 24

New York Jets 17- Detroit 24

 

San Francisco49ers at Minnesota Vikings:

This game is interesting for one main reason, the quarterbacks. San Francisco  Jimmy Garoppolo will be looking to build on his 5-0 record as the starter at the end of last season.  He will have to do so against a team who will be starting the biggest free agent acquisition of the off season, Kirk Cousins.   After years of trying to sign a contract worth of a starting QB with the Washington Redskins Cousins will be wanting to prove he is an elite QB in the league.   I see both QBs struggling to find a rhythm since this is week 1, however; with more weapons on offense and a vaunted defense I see Minnesota coming out on top.  Prediction:  20-17 Minnesota wins

Kansas City Chiefs at LA Chargers:   This early season division matchup could prove to be huge later in the season.  The Chargers are a popular preseason pick to win the division.  Phillip Rivers hasn’t slowed down and the eternal Antonio Gates is back for another run at a championship that has eluded him.  The Chargers have a solid defense and while it looks increasingly likely that Joey Bosa will not play Melvin Ingram should prove more than enough of a challenge for Kansas City.  For the Chiefs their roster is looking as strong as ever with one main change at QB.  Patrick Mahomes is taking over for Alex Smith and the Chiefs are hoping he will provide the spark that finally pushes them to the Super Bowl.  I don’t see it, Mahomes has an abundance of talent, but I need to see him prove it first.  I see him struggling early against a solid Chargers defense.  Prediction:  24-13  LA Chargers win

LA Rams at Oakland Raiders:  The people or person to  watch here will be the coaches.  Jon Gruden commentator extraordinaire and lover of the double a gap blitz is back coaching.  His goal is simple, beat Tom Brady which he wasn’t able to do the last time he was a coach almost 20 years ago.  Sean Mcvay, one of the best young minds in the NFL, hasn’t beat Tom Brady as a head coach either, but he has a solid team and is a favorite to get a chance come February.   The Raiders are hoping Jon Gruden can spark an offense that struggled last year to find a rhythm.  If Derek Carr can find the connection he had with Amari Cooper in 2016 then the Raiders will be able to beat anyone.  Another storyline to watch is the defenses.  The Rams signed their defensive star who was holding out, Aaron Donald.  Meanwhile the Raiders decided not to pay their defensive star and traded Khalil Mack to the Bears.  Will the Raiders have enough firepower to keep up with the Rams and their talent?  I don’t think so.  Prediction:  30-17 Rams win

 

Thank you for reading and I’m looking forward to doing this the rest of the season.